As U.S. presidential frontrunner Donald Trump revives threats of aggressive tariffs on European imports, small producers across the EU are growing increasingly anxious. For niche exporters like Skellig Six18, an Irish gin and whiskey distillery on Ireland’s windswept west coast, the timing couldn’t be worse.

“30% is untenable,” said June O’Connell, founder of Skellig Six18. “It changes everything.”

The distillery began exporting to the U.S. in late 2023, after more than a year of negotiations with American distributors and retailers. But just months into its U.S. debut, the political climate shifted dramatically.

Trump’s rhetoric on trade has taken a sharper turn, hinting at tariffs as high as 30% on select European goods. The threat has already sent shockwaves through supply chains, with importers rushing to stock up on products before any duties take effect.

“People were trying to get a lot of product stateside ahead of tariffs,” O’Connell explained. “We did some of that, but now warehouses are full. Importers are saying don’t send any more, and only the big customers are getting priority.”

Small Producers at a Disadvantage

While larger European exporters may have the financial cushion and scale to absorb new duties or navigate shifting trade policies, smaller producers like Skellig Six18 face a much tougher road.

• Rising export costs are likely to squeeze already thin margins.
• Limited shelf space in U.S. markets will increasingly favor established brands.
• Overseas buyers, wary of price volatility, may scale back or cancel orders altogether.

This dynamic is echoed across Europe — from Italian cheese makers and Spanish olive oil producers to French winemakers — all of whom rely heavily on access to the U.S. market for revenue and growth.

A Broader Impact on Transatlantic Trade

Analysts warn that Trump’s aggressive tariff approach, if enacted during a second term, could destabilize EU-U.S. trade relations and reignite retaliatory measures. The policy signals also complicate investment decisions for firms that operate across borders or rely on predictable export channels.

In sectors like food and beverage, where branding, consistency, and consumer familiarity are essential, sudden price jumps could disrupt long-standing market positions and customer loyalty.

The Road Ahead

For now, EU exporters remain in limbo — caught between preparing for worst-case scenarios and hoping for a de-escalation of trade tensions.

But for businesses like Skellig Six18, the concern is real and immediate.

“This isn’t just about whiskey or cheese,” O’Connell said. “It’s about whether small producers like us can even stay in the game.”