OPEC+ members may consider a larger-than-planned increase in oil output when they meet on Sunday, sources familiar with negotiations said on Saturday. This development comes after producers reviewed market conditions and demand prospects as global energy markets shift. The group’s usual modest rise in production could give way to a bigger adjustment.

The organisation includes major oil exporters such as Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman. These producers were already scheduled to agree to a 137,000 barrels per day rise in output for April, ending a three-month pause in production increases. However, two sources said delegates may now discuss raising output by a larger amount.

📈 Shifting Market Conditions

Oil markets have shown volatility in recent weeks, largely driven by changing demand forecasts and supply dynamics. Oil prices have remained elevated compared with earlier projections this year, prompting debate among producers about how best to balance supply with global needs. Producers typically increase output ahead of the U.S. summer driving season, which boosts demand for fuel.

The potential for a larger-than-expected output rise reflects producers’ desire to ensure markets remain well-supplied. In many parts of the world, demand has outpaced earlier forecasts. Therefore, OPEC+ members have reason to consider a stronger response than initially planned.

OPEC+ previously raised production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day from April through December 2025, representing roughly 3% of global oil demand. This adjustment came before a seasonal pause in output increases during the first quarter of 2026. Sources said some countries, including the UAE, have already begun to boost exports in anticipation of stronger demand.

🤝 Producers’ Perspective on Output Decisions

Delegates have not yet agreed on the size of any larger increase, and discussions are ongoing. Two anonymous sources familiar with the talks said both sides view a larger hike as possible, though no final decision has been made. Ministers and representatives will gather to debate the best course of action for maintaining market stability.

In recent years, OPEC+ has used gradual increases to manage market balance carefully. The organisation tends to avoid abrupt swings in production that could disrupt prices. However, the evolving global backdrop has raised questions about the adequacy of previous plans. A larger jump in oil output could reassure markets and support economic activity.

📉 Price and Supply Considerations

Oil prices have responded to shifts in market expectations. Although there have been fears of oversupply in some quarters, recent data suggest demand remains strong. Producers worry that failure to align capacity with need could cause prices to spike unexpectedly. As a result, they may opt for a more proactive approach.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have already increased crude exports ahead of any official decision. This early move signals that major producers are preparing for greater output volume in the weeks ahead. Industry analysts see this as part of a contingency plan to keep markets functioning smoothly.

🌍 What to Expect at the Meeting

OPEC+ delegates will meet on Sunday to finalise their plans. They will consider oil demand forecasts, refining capacity projections, and seasonal consumption patterns. After deliberations, the group is set to announce official production targets for the coming months.

Analysts say the final decision could have a significant impact on global energy markets. A larger output hike could ease upward pressure on oil prices, while a more cautious increase may maintain tighter conditions. Either choice will send signals to traders and consumers about the state of supply and demand in the global oil market.