The group announced a 411,000 barrels per day output increase for May, tripling earlier projections. This move occurred amid economic uncertainty stemming from U.S. President Donald Trump’s shifting tariff policies, raising concerns about global energy demand. Analysts suggest the production hike may be strategic, potentially aimed at appeasing Trump and reducing geopolitical tensions ahead of his visits to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. It may also serve domestic needs due to seasonal increases in cooling demand. J.P. Morgan noted that supply cuts now have a diminished effect on prices, leading to the idea that maximizing supply could be more profitable. Despite falling prices, OPEC+ may further raise output in June to manage compliance issues, as countries like Kazakhstan, Iraq, and Russia have exceeded quotas. However, persistent noncompliance could exacerbate oversupply, deepening price declines. The group’s next decision on production levels is expected at a rescheduled meeting on May 5.
OPEC+ Increases Oil Output, Leading to Price Declines

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