Israel has long pursued a delicate policy of strategic ambiguity in its relationship with Russia. Even after Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, when most Western nations swiftly imposed severe sanctions and cut diplomatic ties, Israel opted for a more measured response, maintaining its working relationship with Russia.

This careful balancing act, which has often drawn criticism from its Western allies, is driven less by ideological alignment and more by pragmatic security considerations. Israel is acutely aware of Russia’s significant military presence in Syria, where Israeli forces regularly conduct airstrikes targeting Iranian-linked positions and weapons transfers. Given Russia’s control over Syrian airspace and its coordination mechanisms with the Israeli military, maintaining open communication with Moscow is a strategic imperative.

Security Calculations in Syria Drive Israel’s Policy

Russia’s military intervention in Syria began in 2015 to bolster the Assad regime, fundamentally reshaping the power dynamics in the region. The presence of Russian forces, particularly advanced air defense systems such as the S-400 missile batteries, has given Moscow effective control over Syrian airspace, complicating Israel’s ability to act freely in the region.

To safeguard its security interests and maintain its ability to strike Iranian-linked targets in Syria, Israel established a deconfliction mechanism with Russia. This arrangement allows Israel to carry out operations while minimizing the risk of direct confrontation with Russian forces.

➡️ Israel’s Air Campaign in Syria: Since 2017, Israel has carried out hundreds of airstrikes in Syria, targeting Iranian weapons shipments, Hezbollah infrastructure, and other perceived threats. These strikes are essential to Israel’s efforts to prevent Iran from establishing a permanent military foothold on its northern border.
➡️ Russian Coordination: The Russian military presence in Syria means that any Israeli operation requires prior coordination to avoid unintended clashes. Maintaining amicable relations with Moscow ensures that Israel can continue its operations with minimal interference.

Israel’s Position on Ukraine: A Delicate Balancing Act

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Israel came under increasing pressure from the United States and its Western allies to take a firm stance against Moscow. However, while Israel condemned the invasion at the United Nations and sent humanitarian aid to Ukraine, it refrained from imposing direct sanctions or supplying Ukraine with weapons.

➡️ Avoiding Provoking Russia: Israeli officials were wary of provoking Russia into altering its posture in Syria or limiting Israel’s freedom of action. A more confrontational approach toward Moscow could jeopardize Israel’s operational capabilities in the region.
➡️ Concern Over Jewish Communities: Israel is also concerned about the safety of Jewish communities in Russia and Ukraine, which adds another layer of complexity to its diplomatic approach.

“We have to be cautious. We need freedom of action in Syria,” former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett explained, defending Israel’s reluctance to align fully with the West against Russia.

Potential Shift with Trump Back in the White House

If Donald Trump were to return to the White House after the 2024 U.S. elections, analysts predict that Israel’s relationship with Russia could strengthen further.

Trump’s approach to Russia during his first term was marked by a mix of admiration and pragmatism, and he consistently expressed a desire to improve U.S.-Russia relations. His stance stood in stark contrast to the Biden administration, which has taken a much harder line against Moscow.

➡️ Less Pressure on Israel: Under a second Trump administration, Israel would likely face less pressure to distance itself from Russia. Trump has historically been less critical of Russia’s actions and may not prioritize pushing allies like Israel to conform to a strict anti-Russian stance.
➡️ More Autonomy for Israel’s Russia Policy: A Trump presidency could give Israel more latitude to maintain its strategic autonomy in dealing with Russia, without fear of straining its relations with Washington.
➡️ Possible Diplomatic Openings: Trump’s inclination to broker “grand bargains” could also lead to new diplomatic opportunities involving Russia, potentially giving Israel a freer hand to navigate its complex relationship with Moscow.

Strategic Implications for U.S.-Israel-Russia Triangle

A Trump presidency could lead to a reconfiguration of the U.S.-Israel-Russia triangle, with significant implications for Middle Eastern stability.

➡️ Flexibility in Syria: With fewer constraints from Washington, Israel may feel emboldened to expand its operations in Syria and target Iranian infrastructure with greater frequency.
➡️ Potential for New Regional Alliances: A more permissive U.S. stance could pave the way for deeper coordination between Israel and Russia on shared concerns, such as Iranian influence in the region.
➡️ Risks of Russian Retaliation: However, an unrestrained Israeli policy in Syria could provoke unpredictable responses from Russia, particularly if Israeli actions threaten Russian interests or personnel on the ground.

Challenges and Risks Remain

Despite the potential benefits of a more flexible U.S. approach under Trump, the risks associated with Israel’s relationship with Russia remain high.

➡️ Volatility in Syria: The Syrian conflict remains volatile, and any miscalculation could lead to an unintended escalation between Israeli and Russian forces.
➡️ Strained Ties with Ukraine: Closer Israeli-Russian ties under a future Trump administration could further strain Israel’s relations with Ukraine and other Western allies.
➡️ Perception of Favoritism: Israel’s perceived neutrality or alignment with Moscow could complicate its standing with key Western nations and undermine its role as a trusted partner in the international community.

Conclusion: A Fine Balancing Act

Israel’s strategic relationship with Russia is a complex balancing act, driven by security imperatives and geopolitical realities. With Trump potentially returning to the White House, Israel may find itself with greater freedom to pursue a more autonomous policy toward Russia.

However, this newfound flexibility could come with its own set of challenges, requiring Israel to carefully navigate the delicate balance between maintaining operational freedom in Syria and preserving its critical alliances with the United States and the broader Western world.

As global power dynamics shift, Israel’s leaders will have to tread carefully to ensure that their strategic ambiguity continues to serve the country’s long-term interests without alienating key partners or compromising its security.