Ten years after the Paris Climate Agreement, the global energy transition is advancing — but not as planned. According to Reuters analysis, the path ahead will be fractured, bumpy and long. While renewables have grown rapidly, fossil-fuel use continues to rise. And the journey looks very different depending on where you are.

🇨🇳 China: Leading the Charge, Yet Holding the Coal

China is home to the bulk of the world’s new renewable-energy capacity. It accounts for over 60% of all renewables added globally in recent years, exceeding its targets six years ahead of schedule. At the same time, China is still investing heavily in coal-fired power. Its dual strategy: secure energy independence and lead in wind, solar, batteries and electric vehicles. But critics say the country’s green leadership is undermined by its continued reliance on fossil fuels.

🇺🇸 United States: A Slower, More Divided Route

The U.S. has shifted back toward fossil fuels under current policy settings. Having exited and re-entered the Paris framework in recent years, its energy-transition momentum has faltered. Cheap natural gas has cut emissions by replacing coal, yet investment in clean energy is slowing due to political and regulatory uncertainty. The result: the U.S. path will likely be slower and subject to large swings.

🇪🇺 Europe: Committed, But Facing Realities

Europe has long championed net-zero goals by 2050. But the war in Ukraine and the resulting energy-crisis exposed the vulnerability of relying heavily on external supplies. Surging energy bills, industrial slowdown and domestic pushback have slowed progress. Though Europe remains committed, its path is costly, complicated and prone to political turbulence.

🔍 The Bigger Picture: Fragmentation and Footprints

The collective picture: three major players, three distinct paths. China with rapid expansion of clean power alongside fossil fuel growth. The U.S. facing political headwinds and policy inconsistency. Europe committed but battling external disruption and internal resistance.

Despite these divergent tracks, the transition is moving forward — just not in a coordinated way. Global wind and solar consumption has roughly tripled since 2015. Yet renewable energy still comprises only about 9% of the global energy mix, up from 4% a decade ago. Meanwhile, many fossil-fuel systems remain in full operation.

✅ What This Means & What to Watch

The future of the energy system will be shaped by slower-moving transitions and regional stories. Key to watch:

• Whether countries can decouple economic growth from fossil-fuel use.
• How investment in emerging technologies like hydrogen and carbon capture performs.
• Whether geopolitical competition increases rather than cooperative climate action.
• How durable clean-energy supply chains and technologies become across regions.

In short, the energy transition is far from done. It is now uneven, competitive, and long-hailed. The era of one shared roadmap is over. Instead, expect a patchwork of national strategies, shifting alliances and technological leaps — all framed in a longer-term struggle to transform how the world uses energy.