Alberta’s financial outlook has changed significantly since the province introduced its 2026 budget, with stronger-than-expected oil prices potentially helping eliminate a projected $9.4 billion deficit.

The province could now be on track to finish the fiscal year with a surplus if oil prices remain elevated, marking a major shift from the financial forecast presented earlier this year.

Trevor Tombe, an economics professor at the University of Calgary, described the change in Alberta’s financial outlook as dramatic.

When the 2026 budget was introduced, Alberta forecast that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices would average US$60.50 per barrel during the fiscal year.

However, oil prices have since risen above the government’s original assumptions, boosting Alberta’s expected royalty revenues and improving the province’s overall financial position.

The change highlights the significant role that energy prices continue to play in Alberta’s economy and government finances.

While the final result will depend on oil prices during the remainder of the fiscal year and actual government spending, the province’s projected deficit could potentially be eliminated, with Alberta finishing the year in surplus instead.