A University of Oxford-led study has found that temperature-related health problems account for about 3% of NHS England’s primary and secondary care budget. The research highlights how both cold and hot weather increase healthcare demand, placing sustained pressure on the public health system.

Key findings from the research

The study analysed more than 4.3 million anonymised patient records across England. Researchers examined how daily temperature changes influenced hospital admissions, outpatient visits, and primary care use.

The findings showed that cold weather contributes to a larger share of overall healthcare costs. In contrast, hot days trigger sharper short-term spikes in healthcare use, especially during heatwaves.

Although heat events receive more public attention, the research found that prolonged exposure to cold temperatures creates a greater cumulative burden on health services.

Who is most affected

Older adults were identified as the group most vulnerable to temperature-related illness. The study found that people aged 65 and above accounted for a disproportionate share of healthcare use linked to both cold and heat exposure.

Chronic conditions, including cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses, were more likely to worsen during periods of temperature stress. As a result, demand for emergency and routine care increased during extreme weather periods.

Why cold weather drives higher costs

Cold exposure often leads to longer-lasting health complications. These include infections, heart strain, and respiratory problems, which require repeated medical visits and extended treatment.

In comparison, heat exposure causes sudden increases in hospital admissions. However, these tend to be more concentrated over short periods. This difference explains why cold weather contributes more to annual healthcare spending, despite heatwaves causing visible crises.

Implications for public health planning

Researchers said the findings underline the importance of long-term climate adaptation planning within healthcare systems. Understanding how temperature affects healthcare demand can help planners allocate resources more effectively.

“Temperature extremes already have a measurable impact on healthcare costs,”
the researchers noted, adding that preventive measures could reduce future strain.

The study suggests that investments in housing insulation, early warning systems, and community support for vulnerable groups could help lower health risks and reduce costs.

Climate change and future pressures

As climate change increases the frequency of both heatwaves and cold spells, researchers warn that healthcare systems may face rising costs if preventative action is not taken.

The study highlights the need for coordinated policies that address environmental risk alongside healthcare delivery. Officials may need to consider weather-related health impacts when planning future NHS budgets.

About the study

The research was published in the peer-reviewed journal The Lancet Planetary Health. It was led by researchers from the University of Oxford, working with public health and climate experts.

The authors stressed that while temperature is only one factor affecting health, its impact is already significant and likely to grow.