Millions of pensioners are expected to see a boost to their income next spring, with the state pension set to rise by 4.7% from April 2025 under the government’s “triple lock” guarantee. The latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) suggest that average wage growth will drive the increase, meaning retirees could see their payments grow by more than £500 a year.

The triple lock policy ensures that the state pension increases each year by the highest of three measures: inflation, average earnings growth, or 2.5%. With inflation forecast at 4% in September, the ONS figure showing pay growth including bonuses at 4.7% for the three months to July is expected to be the benchmark used. This would mark the third consecutive year that average earnings growth has determined the annual rise.

For those on the new flat-rate state pension—available to people reaching state pension age after April 2016—the weekly rate is projected to increase to £241.05, equivalent to £12,534.60 a year. This represents an uplift of £561.60 compared with current levels. Pensioners on the older basic state pension, which applies to those who reached retirement age before April 2016, will see their weekly rate rise to £184.75, or £9,607 annually—an increase of £431.60.

The changes affect nearly 13 million people across the UK. But alongside the welcome rise, experts warn of growing tax implications. With the personal tax allowance frozen at £12,570 until 2028, the rising pension means many retirees could soon be drawn into the tax net.

Sir Steve Webb, former pensions minister and partner at consultancy LCP, noted that the new state pension is edging ever closer to the personal allowance threshold. He warned that by April 2027, pensioners with no other income aside from the new state pension will likely become taxpayers for the first time. “It is already the case that nearly three quarters of pensioners pay income tax,” Webb said. “The ongoing freeze in tax thresholds, coupled with steady rises in the pension, will drag more and more into the tax net.”

The debate around the affordability of the triple lock continues, with critics arguing that the policy places a growing strain on government finances. However, supporters insist it is vital to protect older people from falling behind as the cost of living rises.

The official decision on the pension increase will be confirmed later this autumn, but for millions of retirees, the April uplift promises much-needed financial support—alongside new questions about tax and long-term pension policy.